Leader: Is Linux really heading for the desktop?

The penguin-toting Linux brigade have been getting themselves in a frenzy in the last few weeks with a number of exciting developments and high-profile big customer wins in the open source arena.

First off Sun Microsystems announced it had won a deal with a Chinese government-backed consortium for an initial half a million deployments of its new Linux-based Java Desktop System, and with the ink barely dry on that contract Sun CEO Scott McNealy declared - loudly and in the general direction of Redmond - that he's gunning for "hundreds of millions" of deployments across China.

And before you could say $25 for a Linux desktop, NHS director general of IT, Richard Granger, announced on Friday that the health service is going to pilot Sun's desktop Linux package as an alternative to Microsoft across a million desktops, saying it could save taxpayers millions of pounds.

Now, far be it for us to spoil the Linux love-in but it's probably worth taking a step back and getting a reality check here. The NHS pilot could just be a stick being used to frighten Microsoft into giving a bigger discount on its software licences, so the jury's still out on that one. And while the China deal is undoubtedly significant, it is hardly surprising given that China is not about to just hand Microsoft the largest market in the world on a plate.

The proof will come with large corporate users, and the evidence to date suggests that while Linux is making huge inroads into the server room, CIOs are still not convinced that Linux is mature enough for the desktop. Despite Microsoft making a stunning mess of introducing its licence changes 18 months ago resulting in many firms threatening to move to Linux, how many actually have? Not many, we'd wager.

But there are signs that it is making a gradual impression, with a survey today by IBM claiming that half of small firms want to replace Windows with Linux. And the development of a true enterprise-class Linux desktop system can only be good for everyone, ensuring technological innovation and genuine competition.