100 million PCs to get the boot in 2004

Nearly 100 million PCs are likely to be replaced this year, with 120 million being swapped out in 2005, according to data from research firm Gartner released.

The volume of replacements in the next two years will surpass the number of units replaced in the run-up to Y2K in 1998 and 1999, Gartner said. In 2004, replacement units will drive global shipments to 186.4 million - an increase of 13.6 per cent over 2003.

George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner's client platforms research, said in a statement: "Our first-quarter results suggest the... replacement cycle that vendors have been anticipating for more than a year is under way."

Gartner analysts said more than 30 per cent of installed PCs are now at least three years old. Many of those machines run older versions of Windows operating systems, for which full technical support may not be available. This, they said, will play a major role in pushing sales of replacements. Strong economic growth in the US, the Asia-Pacific region and Japan is also likely to boost sales of new PCs.

In a forecast it issued in February, Gartner had said consumer sales would be driven by upgrades to new desktops in order to handle new applications like digital photography or multimedia.

The market researcher said PC shipments for the second quarter of 2004 are projected to increase 14.3 per cent from the second quarter of last year.

Dinesh C. Sharma writes for CNET News.com