Minority Report: Apple, Google - and the power of rumour

silicon.com is pleased to introduce Minority Report, a new column focused on Apple and other minority voices in IT by Seb Janacek. Today he examines the advantages of rumour mills surrounding the Mac maker and companies such as Google.

For the happy residents that dwell on the lunatic fringe of the Mac community, Christmas comes but thrice a year.

There's the traditional 25th December appointment, obviously.

Then an additional celebration in mid-January as the San Francisco Expo kicks off with the traditional Steve Jobs keynote.

Apple's non-appearance at the 2004 Boston (formerly New York) Expo seems to have kiboshed the July event but never fear, thanks to the company's now annual big-cat-themed update of Mac OS X, the developer conference in June has been added to calendars around the world. Although traditionally an expo for third-party developers (or the hardcore Mac fan), it's surprising how many people are prepared to sit through a lot of talk about APIs in order to get the first glimpse at the latest interface OS advances and features.

Meanwhile, a big show-and-tell at the last European event in Paris gave us the G5 iMac and the possibility of another major diary event for the calendar. Though given Apple's previous form in European events, it may be too soon to add it to iCal as a recurring annual event.

All round the year the busy elves of Cupertino are readying the goodies that Santa Jobs gets to wax lyrical about at each of his traditional keynotes.

Another, less welcome, tradition is that Apple only gets around to actually shipping those products several weeks if not months later - even Santa has supply-chain issues.

A vast number of websites and blogs have sprung up around the company dedicated to the discussion of existing products and, more importantly, speculating on future Apple kit.

And therein lies one of the company's most valuable yet least tangible assets - the insatiable power of rumour.

The passion for the Mac is clear on every discussion board and while activity peaks in the run-up to major events, the interest and speculation about whether the next PowerBook will feature the G5 chip, or if Apple will ever produce a pure-play PDA, is sustained throughout the year by the passion of Apple's customers.

It is, as the signature of one poster states rather neatly, about "providing grist for the rumour mill".

The rumour sites sometimes get it right. You can always tell the genuine article when pictures are removed quickly and replaced with banners that read: "Removed at the request of Apple Computer." Cue a desperate scrabble for the outlawed images on Google or P2P services.

Respected Wall Street analysts like to get in on the action too. On the same day this week as he stated that iPods really were the new Sony Walkmans and that he had the predictions to prove it, Merrill Lynch stalwart Steven Milunovich suggested the company was about to release a mega-storage entertainment centre. Well, probably.

The phenomenon isn't limited to Apple. To some, Google has supplanted the Mac maker as the champion of digital cool, as its fans - technology buffs and investors alike - speculate wildly on the 'next big thing' for the search engine.

In recent months, the search company has been rumoured to be working on a thin-client operating system and, tantalisingly, a web browser. Google has the same dedication as Apple to thinking differently.

Apple benefits in more ways than one for its design-led approach to developing its product line.

Naturally, not all products enjoy commercial success. However, despite the poor sales it's unlikely Jobs regretted going the Cube route. The ill-fated computer won tons of plaudits for its design and despite disastrous sales is now a collector's item on eBay.

That's scant consolation for the Apple bean counters but the computer helped to reinforce the company's reputation as an innovator rather than simply a purveyor of boxes filled with circuits, hard drives and wires.

As analyst Robin Bloor stated on www.it-director.com: "The surprising thing about Apple is that it punches well above its weight." Despite its minority share of the market, where Apple goes, others follow.

Apple has a marketing division - a great big shiny one with bells on. And it has one of the most recognisable and respected brands in technology. But the company is also famous for refusing to comment on forthcoming products on the Cupertino conveyor belt.

But it doesn't need to, because it's the power and impetus of rumour that drives and sustains interest in the company and its products among its faithful following.

The feverish interest the company manages to sustain during the vacuums between product launches is worth a fortune in PR - and it involves zero effort on Apple's behalf. It's far more valuable than a 30-second Super Bowl ad placement or a dozen wry Jeff Goldblum voiceovers.

Apple looks set to have a barn-storming Christmas 2004 with its revamped iPods and all-in-one iMacs. Furthermore, iPod sales should continue their stratospheric rise if the final piece of the company's plan for complete control of the MP3 player market is unveiled as a Flash-based iPod at the San Francisco Expo on 10 January.

As predicted by numerous rumour sites, of course.

But just imagine what it could do next Christmas with a G5 PowerBook, loaded with a gig of RAM, a 100GB hard drive, the next-generation ATI Mobility Radeon graphics chip and, best of all, a 'chameleon' case design that changes colours.

You heard it here first, right?