Minority Report: What would Apple be without Jobs?

Apple is going from strength to strength and behind it all is CEO Steve Jobs. Seb Janacek looks at the pivotal role he plays in Cupertino - now more so than ever.

It's a tribute to Steve Jobs' vision for personal computing that despite Apple's minority position in the technology landscape, he has taken up residence in the upper echelons of those business leaders and technologists responsible for shaping the next generation of computing.

In silicon.com's annual Agenda Setters poll of tech's top 50 movers and shakers, Jobs repeatedly does well - coming in second this year and last, and winning it in 2003.

His company's minority market share is growing fast, in no small way thanks to Jobs' vision. As one member of the Agenda Setters panel observed: "Apple last year had the greatest growth of all the Nasdaq 100 companies based on market capitalisation. And that comes from the top."

Apple is the ultimate Silicon Valley dream - from humble garage beginnings to Nasdaq darling and agenda-setting technology firm.

We all know the story of how Jobs and Steve Wozniak formed Apple in 1976 and hit a home run a year later with the Wozniak-designed Apple II. Then in 1984 the launch of the Macintosh cemented Jobs' position as a leader capable of understanding and defining the technological zeitgeist.

Likewise we've heard about his exit from Apple a year later, buying Pixar, starting software firm NeXT - and then selling it to Apple, the move which brought him back to the company he founded.

Jobs soon ousted solid but unspectacular Apple CEO Gil Amelio and set about dragging the company out of the mire.

He crushed the Mac clones, killed the Newton handheld, healed the deep rifts with Microsoft and put the NeXT Openstep technology at the heart of Apple's major operating system overhaul - OS X.

Soon he introduced the iMac, with its innovative all-in-one translucent colour case designed by the Jobs-appointed Jonathan Ive (who was also named an Agenda Setter this year and last).

With the iMac, Jobs and Ive ignited a revolution in personal computing as significant as the original Macintosh. The iMac proved that industrial design should be a thing of beauty not just of utility. This principle has been at the heart of the company's design ethos ever since.

Under Jobs' guidance, the company rationalised its Macintosh product range into four clear lines: professional desktop (PowerMac), professional laptop (PowerBook), consumer desktop (iMac) and consumer laptop (iBook).

The product nucleus remains today, supplemented by satellite products like the Mac mini, xServe and the eMac and by the gloriously sexy (though gloriously unprofitable) G4 Cube.

Few would argue that Jobs has turned the company around and revolutionised the consumer perception of computers with the iMac. But with Mac OS X he delivered an operating system that was stable, usable, secure and as sleek as the plastic casings that housed it. Each iteration of the cat-themed OS earns new plaudits.

If the introduction of the Bondi-blue iMac in 1998 turned the company's fortunes around, the introduction of the iPod, and subsequently the iTunes Music Store, turned the company on its head.

The little MP3 player and online store now dominate their respective markets, and ever-increasing sales keep the Apple bean-counters adding ever-increasing numbers of zeroes to their spreadsheets.

Jobs recent bold decision to throw out the iPod mini, one of the company's most popular products, and replace it with the slim, sleek iPod nano is another bold stroke for the CEO, with analysts already crowing about record sales predictions.

The iPod revolution provided the company with an alternate revenue stream and a foothold in another lucrative market - online media distribution.

It also turned a new generation of PC users onto the Mac platform through the so-called 'halo effect' resulting in a renewed interest in the company's desktops and servers.

Looking forward, it's hard to imagine Apple continuing on its upward curve without Jobs at the helm.

Jobs will play a critical role in taking forward the company's media interests. He negotiated successfully with the record companies to make iTunes a viable commercial operation.

Apple is sailing into uncharted waters. Its evolution into a media company has been wildly successful so far, and video and movie content seems to be the next frontier.

The relationship with Intel will no doubt help. In recent times, the processor giant has been showcasing the benefits its technology can deliver to Hollywood moguls who undoubtedly have an eye on the success of digital music sales.

Intel is also committed to developing rights management systems to enable the sharing and distribution of digital video content.

An Apple-designed, Intel-powered home entertainment hub, whether an iPod or an entirely separate product, will bring the Apple brand into the living room.

Meanwhile, Jobs' role as CEO of Pixar will add credibility to negotiations and be of huge benefit in getting the studios interested in online distribution.

For purists, the switch to Intel processors sets Apple on what promises to be a grander adventure still.

Mac sales may go through a rocky patch while customers wait for the new Intel-based Macs arrive. It's a leap of faith for all involved and Jobs will need to steady the ship through yet another choppy transitional period.

Many (including this writer) thought the OS wars were long over. But hostilities may well be about to resume.

Microsoft's operating system is perceived as stagnating at the moment - the company is beset by delays to its next-generation Vista and Windows is pounded daily by malware authors and security exploits.

With its old adversary also eyeing Google as the major threat on its radar, the time is ripe for Apple to claw back considerable market share - and who better to have at the helm than someone who suffered some of the deepest wounds and learned some of the most painful lessons last time around?

Furthermore, there are murmurings in both the press and the blogosphere that Apple might resurrect the clones programme. It would likely be the boldest move yet - and one for the tech romantics to dream about, at the very least.

As US technology journalist Nick Arnett once wrote: "Without Jobs, Apple is just another Silicon Valley company and without Apple, Jobs is just another Silicon Valley millionaire."

This statement has never seemed to ring so true, with the individual and the company fixed together in the public and market perception.

The only way one can imagine Jobs leaving Apple is if he decided to walk away of his own accord. Indeed, many Mac fans and stakeholders sighed in considerable relief when Bob Iger was named as Michael Eisner's successor as CEO of Disney. Many observers, including Forbes magazine, believed that Jobs' success with Pixar and Apple marked him out as the natural heir at the entertainment giant.

Jobs and Apple can look forward to a vibrant couple of years and while no executive is ever 100 per cent safe, it's fair to say that for the time being Apple needs Jobs more than Jobs needs Apple.