Minority Report: Changing of the guard at Apple?

Is Steve Jobs heading for the exit door at Apple? Seb Janacek speculates on what his recent keynote no-shows mean - and wonders how the company will ever fill his shoes.

Signs that the traditional Steve Jobs keynote speech at Apple's recent Worldwide Developer Conference - one of the highlights of the Mac calendar - might be slightly out of the ordinary were evident before the event even kicked off.

Well ahead of the event, Apple announced that CEO Jobs would be joined on stage by a coterie of executives for his keynote speech. Although Jobs frequently hands over slots to key personnel during the much-awaited stage shows, to give other execs advanced billing was odd. Keynote speeches are traditionally a Steve Jobs affair, so much so that some sections of the Mac community and press call them 'Stevenotes'.

The company was planning to give the audience - comprised mostly of developers and the world's press - an advanced sighting of Leopard, the next generation of its OS X operating system, which fans expect to go head-to-head with Windows Vista.

As it happens, Steve and co only showed off a few of the non 'top secret' features, so paranoid is Apple that Microsoft might steal its ideas and slip some of the really good stuff into its own much-delayed OS launch.

In the event, Jobs drifted in and out of the keynote, handing over significant chunks to his executives: marketing chief Phil Schiller, vice president of platform experience Scott Forstall and Bertrand Serlet, senior vice president of software engineering.

It was a staggeringly dull keynote by anyone's standards. The various non-secret Leopard features seemed OK but OS X fans will hope that the 'top secret' features will be more exciting than what was unveiled during the 90-minute keynote.

An enhancement to its email application was perhaps the least inspiring, a whole new version number just to add 'To Do' notes, as well as a feature that allows users to create customisable HTML emails with borders and images (evil incarnate). The instant messaging upgrade that allowed users to hold video chats with 'comedy' backgrounds was just as risible. It all smacked a little of desperation.

Unnecessary digs at the much-delayed Vista didn't help dispel the feeling that the execs were looking to pad out the full 90 minutes.

Even the arrival of the Mac Pro - Apple's high-end workstation equipped with two dual-core Xeon processors - failed to wow the crowd, despite the machines representing the early completion of the company's impressive transition to Intel chips.

"Has Steve Jobs lost his magic?" asked Wired magazine following the event. News reports and blogs echoed the sentiment.

Moreover, many were also alarmed by the appearance of the listless Jobs, claiming he appeared gaunt and exhausted.

Indeed, so many reports and comments popped up online about the apparent state of health of the CEO that Apple took a largely unprecedented step and issued a comment in response to speculation - saying Steve was in "robust" health. (Jobs was diagnosed with a rare form of pancreatic cancer in 2004 but has since made a full recovery, according to the company.)

Shortly after the most recent statement about Jobs' health, the company said there would be no Jobs keynote at the forthcoming Apple Expo in Paris. The speculation over his health kicked off again, despite the fact that a Paris event opening with a stage show from the CEO has historically been the exception rather than the rule.

Apple has rather created a rod for its own back with keynotes, with the weight of expectation growing with each event following the unveiling of the original iMac in 1998.

The keynotes have become big news and not just for the technology press. The BBC's technology channel has turned into a Mac-obsessed entity in recent times, while other mainstream outlets routinely carry reports on what the company chugs out on its production conveyor belt.

Any keynote that fails to spring a surprise or feature a 'just one more thing' slot (where Jobs takes the wraps off the 'big surprise' product) is considered a disappointment given the frenzy of speculation that takes place before the events. The Apple share price has even been known to drop following particularly low-key presentations.

Is there reason to worry about Apple's ability to deliver at future keynotes?

Perhaps not. After all, the speech Jobs shared with his execs was a conference for the company's developer community. The event for big bang announcements has traditionally been the San Francisco Macworld Expo in January and until recently the East Coast summer events.

Furthermore OS X is a mature product, now into its sixth iteration, so is it still realistic to expect more than 150 new improvements with every iteration, especially given that the company claims to be holding back the good stuff for the actual launch?

Or can we expect those improvements to be as significant as features that have become central to the operating system? Apple released OS X operational but half-baked - it's a credit to its marketing nous that it has been able to repackage core upgrades to 'not-quite-ready' software as a series of enhancements and innovations - and charge users to upgrade every time. It could be argued that the operating system didn't become a truly mature product until 10.3 or even 10.4.

Besides, it's tough work surprising an audience by pulling a rabbit out of a hat when detailed speculation about exactly what the rabbit will look like has been pored over on every Mac-related blog for months ahead of the event. If a slightly less exciting bunny emerges the magic trick becomes even less convincing.

Therein lies the real challenge for Apple - to meet the considerable expectations of thousands of Mac fans on hundreds of Mac rumour boards and blogs.

It must be frustrating for Jobs the showman that the number of 'unconfirmed, super-cool' Apple products now outnumber the number of real products in development. Satisfying the cult of Mac has become an impossible task.

In recent years the media focus on Apple has grown as a result of the sheer number of products and innovations rolling out of Cupertino. It's clearly not a sustainable rate of innovation. Which isn't a criticism or a problem in itself - the company, like its CEO, is also in 'robust' shape.

The most interesting aspect of the entire event remains the presence of the three other Apple executives and the speculation that the division of the traditional Jobs-dominated keynote might suggest the iconic executive is looking to develop an exit strategy from the company he founded. After all, he's already sold Pixar this year. And reports claim the CEO is 'grooming' a successor.

Of the three executives on stage, only Phil Schiller would appear to be able to try and fill Jobs' shoes. He took charge of the keynote for the introduction of the G5 iMac in Paris in 2005, while Jobs was recuperating from his illness.

Meanwhile, the addition of Google CEO Eric Schmidt to the Apple board of directors this week has also got some conspiracy theorists going.

However, what all the candidates lack is what has been infamously described as the 'reality distortion field' - Jobs' ability to make anything about a new or existing product seem absurdly cool.

On the one hand, the time seems right for the CEO to stand aside. The iTunes Music Store and the iPod are market leaders, Mac OS X is mature and much-lauded and the company's computers have completed their transition to Intel and have a new lease of life.

What's more, the technology landscape is changing irrevocably. Stalwarts such as Scott McNealy and Jobs' old arch-rival Bill Gates have both announced in recent months they are stepping down from the companies they founded. The old order changeth.

On the other hand, the company stands at the crossroads. Apple's evolution into a media giant is at a key stage. The company is rumoured to be in advanced discussions with the movie studios about creating an online store for movie downloads and a device to play them on.

The level of alarm about Jobs' appearance and the events of the keynote show two things: firstly the apparent fondness Mac fans feel for Jobs, and secondly the level at which they link the future prospects of the company with the continued leadership of its CEO. As I wrote a few months ago, right now the company needs Jobs, more than Jobs needs Apple.

The Jobs keynote has become an institution in the technology industry and the year in IT would be the poorer for its absence. However, given the challenges and opportunities that lie in wait for the company over the next couple of years, it's likely Jobs will be announcing 'just one more thing' at a few more keynotes yet.