Minority Report: Low-cost MacBook on the way?

As its share price plunges, Apple prepares for a big product announcement. Seb Janacek hopes for the best.

The problems affecting global markets are hitting the technology industry, and Apple in particular, hard. Apple shares have plunged from a mid-August high of $180 to just over $96 on 12 October.

However, despite the grim outlook across markets, the company is expected to fare better than many competitors by virtue of its customer demographic.

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu claims Apple is poised to weather the economic storm.

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In a recent research note Wu said: "In two of its three big franchises, Mac and iPhone, penetration is very low and starting in the higher-income demographics. The disturbance in the macroeconomic environment is within lower-income demographics and financial institutions with exposure and impact to overall liquidity.

"This could certainly spread but we believe Apple's business will remain strong in the near- to medium-term. Enough high-end consumers are still buying technology, though commodities inflation could pressure future margins."

Happily, there are likely to be new goodies for the higher-income set to buy as early as this Tuesday.

The company is holding a special event to mark the release of new notebooks on 14 October. This has got a lot of people very excited. During its last earnings report, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer made a number of references to a mysterious 'transition' product which would affect the company's margins significantly.

This 'product' may be something as simple as the recent price drop across the entire iPod touch range. However, the Apple rumour mill being what it is, the consensus is it's a new product of such staggeringly sexy proportions it will put another dent in the universe.

Some elements of the notebook range are indeed in line for a facelift. The MacBook Pro (MBP) remains an excellent laptop at a decent price with comparative computers but it is getting long in the tooth from a design perspective and this is Apple, after all. The MBP inherited the aluminium case of its predecessor, the G4 PowerBook, a design which itself dates back to 2003, a lifetime as far as Apple is concerned.

Intriguing pictures are circulating online which show the company is moving towards a manufacturing process that involves carving a notebook case out of a solid aluminium brick. As Apple continues to improve its green credentials it's also expected to shift from plastic enclosures on the entry-level MacBooks to recyclable aluminium across its entire notebook range, a move which will probably keep Greenpeace from its door for a while longer.

Like the MacBook Air and the MBP, Apple's notebook range is expected to get increased touch-controls, although via the trackpad and not the screen itself.

Far more intriguing are reports that Apple could be about to release a low-cost notebook. This is unlikely to be in the same range as a netbook like the nifty Asus Eee PC but it could make a claim for part of the sub-$1,000 bracket.

At least that's the view of Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who predicts the company will make MacBooks, Apple's consumer-level notebook, more of a 'premium' product while simultaneously dropping the price. A pretty neat conjuring trick.

The problem with this is Apple doesn't really do 'low cost' products. It's not a particularly profitable model and the company is too focused on maintaining its brand qualities of innovative, usable and quality products.

The Mac mini is a good example of this culture clash. When it was introduced, the tiny computer was meant to be an ideal 'Switcher' machine (to lure PC users ready to switch to the Mac), as it was reasonably low-spec and relatively low in price.

However, since its introduction the Mac mini's price has crept up to the point where it's less and less competitive on price with more powerful competing computers. Plus it's obvious the company has little interest in marketing the product in its current form. It may evolve but in its current state it looks more likely it's in danger of extinction.

Apple just doesn't get 'low cost' - where it does well is selling premium kit. A recent report by market intelligence firm DisplaySearch claims the company now has an all-time high 10.6 per cent share of the US notebook market.

More radical but less exciting would be a significant cut in prices across the whole notebook range. But nobody wants to hear that at an event.

So it's all eyes to the 14 October event, when Apple will be releasing new gadgetry and hopefully take our minds off the depressing turmoil in the economy.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the day Apple announces new Macs - a throwback to the good old days.