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Apple, open source and SaaS tipped to be tech future
Gartner's annual predictions

By Ina Fried

Published: Friday 01 February 2008

Gartner's five-year forecasts are out and there are plenty of trends which could prove worrisome for Microsoft - namely the research firm's prediction Apple will double its US and western Europe market share by 2011.

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Another Gartner prediction which may concern Redmond is that more of us will start leaving our laptops at home. Gartner is estimating the rise of pocket-size web surfing products available for around $400 means by 2012 half of travelling workers will be able to leave the laptop at home. Helping that trend is the fact it is growing easier to store your data and settings on the internet and access them through any web-connected device.

This should be a wake-up call to Microsoft. The company has been slow to compete in this area. Many of the most sought-after products, such as Apple's iPhone or Asus' Eee PC do not use Windows. Also, with Vista, Microsoft has created an operating system that requires more hardware, while the trend for these devices are to use slower, more energy efficient processors, along with more limited capacity flash memory.

Also of note for Microsoft watchers, Gartner predicts within five years 80 per cent of commercial software will include elements of open-source technology.

Gartner said: "Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage."

On the software-as-a-service front, Gartner estimates by 2012, businesses will be spending a third of their application budget on subscription products, as opposed to product licences. The firm also believes forward-thinking businesses will start buying their IT infrastructure as a service.

Gartner said: "Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times. This trend to accepting commodity infrastructure could end the traditional 'lock-in' with a single supplier and lower the costs of switching suppliers."

Among its other predictions, Gartner is predicting a huge rise in 3D printers, ever more environmental focus and a trend of businesses bowing to end user demand for a larger number of hardware and software purchases.